Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe54e177e7ac759f850e7336dd63ac26a26b39252d99e026f991eeec97c20210f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,391 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b50…1ddbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,922$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 2c | 4,214$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,911$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 1,684$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,344$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,331$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 1,041$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 2c | 1,027$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,010$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…bf31backed Yes | 45c | 893.82$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 4c | 848.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 784.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 692$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 645.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 5c | 625.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…c2c4backed Yes | 5c | 623.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c0…0b47backed Yes | 5c | 563.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 9c | 535.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…9ae8backed Yes | 4c | 500.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 482.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 3c | 466.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 3c | 439.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 435.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…319abacked Yes | 6c | 431.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 7c | 420.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 408.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 4c | 400.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…824abacked Yes | 4c | 370.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 9c | 277.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 6c | 269.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 5c | 256.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 8c | 152.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 31c | 125.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 27c | 113.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed No | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 93.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 30c | 67.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.