Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x560894ff1816f541df2dc79005cdc186e2738607ea63b94381c0e329d769e5fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,859 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 12c | 2,092$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 57c | 1,800$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.93 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 43c | 1,414$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.74 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 57c | 1,283$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.91 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3794…715cbacked No | 5c | 1,215$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 77c | 1,089$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.49 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…537cbacked Yes | 71c | 1,082$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 66c | 1,049$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 45c | 855.77$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.93 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 60c | 777.12$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.09 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 728.57$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 12c | 625.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 514.63$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 19c | 487.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 73c | 413.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed No | 22c | 408.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 62c | 402.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.78 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 60c | 396.76$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.05 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 33c | 356.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.07 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 63c | 338.95$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 60c | 335.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.83 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…f149backed Yes | 69c | 313.26$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 69c | 300$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 291.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 73c | 273.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 41c | 273.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.8 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 77c | 269.08$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 256.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked No | 35c | 248.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 58c | 239.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 58c | 233.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 41c | 229.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 40c | 228.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 65c | 227.82$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 63c | 223.43$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.03 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 70c | 222.71$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 220$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…eebdbacked No | 34c | 211.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 68c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 198.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 187.04$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 32c | 179.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 179.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ff…264dbacked No | 38c | 177.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 57c | 176$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 7c | 175.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 63c | 174.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 69c | 173.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…7687backed No | 37c | 172.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 25c | 170.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 55c | 164.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 60c | 163.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 64c | 156.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 60c | 155$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 59c | 151.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…f71bbacked No | 44c | 151$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 58c | 150.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…7562backed Yes | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…ec54backed No | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…010bbacked Yes | 62c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…ee79backed Yes | 52c | 146.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 35c | 142.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 137.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe382…4e25backed No | 41c | 135.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 133.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes | 38c | 131.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed Yes | 79c | 126.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 31c | 125.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 13c | 123.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 21c | 122.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 64c | 122.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes | 60c | 112.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…1147backed No | 34c | 112$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa71b…a060backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 74c | 103.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 69c | 103$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 37c | 100.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 100.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 64c | 100.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 73c | 100.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…37c5backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f55…38aebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb3…9ed6backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…9541backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 32c | 97.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…108dbacked Yes | 41c | 97.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…9b75backed Yes | 70c | 97.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 45c | 97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 28c | 89.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.