TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,859 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No12c2,092$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.948,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes57c1,800$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.9310120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No43c1,414$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.7457044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes57c1,283$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.9195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3794…715cbacked No5c1,215$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes77c1,089$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.4931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24f1…537cbacked Yes71c1,082$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.135100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes66c1,049$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.214,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No45c855.77$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.931,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes60c777.12$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.0977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes49c728.57$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.946,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No12c625.27$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3532818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No26c514.63$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.854,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No19c487.2$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5461821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes73c413.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7449941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd8c…2600backed No22c408.14$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes62c402.22$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.782729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes60c396.76$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.052814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No33c356.33$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0737533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes63c338.95$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.251,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes60c335.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.832835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb355…f149backed Yes69c313.26$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.371154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes69c300$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5411731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c291.53$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.8417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes73c273.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.714645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes41c273.43$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.81,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Yes77c269.08$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1616627.7%46 W · 120 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c256.81$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked No35c248.19$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.812020%4 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-49.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes58c239.43$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6215334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes58c233.57$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.899756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked No41c229.11$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4348331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No40c228.34$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade7…3159backed Yes65c227.82$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.932231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No63c223.43$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0328718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes70c222.71$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6641845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c220$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa132…eebdbacked No34c211.23$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes68c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3633058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No37c198.72$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.061,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No50c187.04$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.093,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes32c179.82$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.496835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes35c179.49$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.171,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ff…264dbacked No38c177.47$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No57c176$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.321,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No7c175.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes63c174.42$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9729137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes69c173.44$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.445547.3%26 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe45…7687backed No37c172.84$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No25c170.79$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9723035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes55c164.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.311146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes60c163.34$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8111646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes64c156.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4417156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes60c155$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.220144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes59c151.08$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.717860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…f71bbacked No44c151$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes58c150.56$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.372,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b79…7562backed Yes75c150$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3057…ec54backed No42c150$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc683…010bbacked Yes62c150$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.32665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed Yes52c146.21$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.552240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes35c142.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.714235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes25c137.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.413,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe382…4e25backed No41c135.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c133.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes38c131.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.621464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes45c130$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.241046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed Yes79c126.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.251855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No31c125.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.541,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No13c123.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.091,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes21c122.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.613333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes64c122.06$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.583644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes60c112.07$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.071464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf0f…1147backed No34c112$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9670%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa71b…a060backed No79c110$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.640%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No74c103.95$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No69c103$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3531868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes37c100.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3129653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes47c100.39$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes64c100.33$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7932444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes73c100.07$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6716651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.343145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9e…8a70backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf5e…37c5backed No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f55…38aebacked No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4011145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdeb3…9ed6backed No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…9541backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes38c99.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe073…abb2backed No32c97.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.354427.3%12 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb732…108dbacked Yes41c97.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.511457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2174…9b75backed Yes70c97.03$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a1…8981backed No45c97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.24862.5%30 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes30c90$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6311337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked No28c89.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.