Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf7f4aee88ced6f9f236541039a1bd2090650c136a6a81ce8693041e6ac1b369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,318 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 52c | 1,075$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.65 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 907.18$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 33c | 670.95$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.36 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 58c | 615.99$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.82 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 522.58$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 47c | 491.03$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 480.3$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 24c | 453.3$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked No | 79c | 424.55$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 58c | 415.23$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 48c | 397.07$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 9c | 381.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 354.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 12c | 330$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 323.89$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 220.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eba…3feabacked Yes | 49c | 204.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 33c | 192.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 191.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 24c | 178.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 176.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 50c | 159$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed No | 76c | 157.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 21c | 151.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 49c | 151.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503e…adb4backed No | 48c | 141.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…681cbacked Yes | 32c | 141$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 36c | 139.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 27c | 130.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 129.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 26c | 122.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 34c | 119.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 119.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 26c | 116.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 65c | 114.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 108.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 43c | 95.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 21c | 80.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 71.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ece3backed Yes | 28c | 71.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 71.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 72c | 69.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 68.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 21c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 59.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 59.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 59.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 57.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 57.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…40b4backed Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…7ae8backed Yes | 27c | 50.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 49.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 63c | 47.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…f383backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…d691backed Yes | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8a…0407backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 66c | 37.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 29c | 37.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked No | 63c | 37.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca4…2097backed Yes | 30c | 37.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…d9f9backed Yes | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes | 35c | 36.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 35.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 40c | 35.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd559…afc4backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 67c | 33.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 36c | 33.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32cd…dcdebacked No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…fb66backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f1…eac1backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 77c | 22.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 72c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.