Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x763b3a453d8c99562a7410f7fcc8d3d26dfa5ea21e5c9be81a0c84134f52174a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,094 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 821.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 78c | 409.66$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 364.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 37c | 304.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.58 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 281.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 260.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.94 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 25c | 194.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 170$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eba…3feabacked Yes | 60c | 166.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 133.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 57c | 131.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 127.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 71c | 127.43$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 124.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…649cbacked Yes | 80c | 112.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 112.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 27c | 109.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 18c | 103.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 39c | 102$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 101.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 54c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 66c | 94.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 50c | 91.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 14c | 89.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 80.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 54c | 76.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 68c | 76.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 18c | 72.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 72.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 64.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 65c | 61.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 33c | 55.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 32c | 54.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 46c | 53.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 25c | 53.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 52c | 50.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 47c | 45.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 53c | 41.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…296ebacked Yes | 61c | 40.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 49c | 40.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…7819backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 80c | 37.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 57c | 35.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 40c | 31.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 80c | 31.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 53c | 30.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 27.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 61c | 26.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…cf46backed Yes | 79c | 25.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 56c | 20.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.