Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb37ebad6bbbbbdaabdf58483a40f02bd148b808942caa454c031f4c89bcb9750
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,155 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1952…280dbacked Yes | 37c | 3,010$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3440…7434backed No | 63c | 1,520$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…1437backed No | 63c | 1,490$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 28c | 538.54$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 25c | 486.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.23 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 444$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.18 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 434.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 23c | 430.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 347.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 76c | 341.97$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 31c | 322.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.24 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 59c | 260.09$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.67 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 22c | 227.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 197.68$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 72c | 190.56$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 10c | 190.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 58c | 173.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 158.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes | 20c | 152.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 68c | 143.69$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 138$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked No | 77c | 130.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 27c | 127.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 52c | 126.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 112.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 111.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 24c | 100.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed Yes | 40c | 91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 85.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 63c | 74.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 43c | 69.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 63.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…35d3backed No | 74c | 60.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 54.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 31c | 53.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ed…af11backed No | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 50.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 45.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 43.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 32c | 43.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…1c1cbacked No | 60c | 41.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 41.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 75c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 31c | 39.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 66c | 34.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed No | 78c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 76cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 79c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.