Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4ca04df015c3f29b671c85cca621af947c2fb94cb7313faf15927eeac8f3cf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,335 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc10…06b5backed Yes | 22c | 4,044$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…081fbacked Yes | 21c | 3,896$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 2,353$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…0e7bbacked No | 78c | 1,365$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef69…7b93backed No | 78c | 1,354$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…33dfbacked No | 79c | 1,325$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…2292backed No | 78c | 1,325$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f1…3ea8backed No | 79c | 1,302$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…16cfbacked No | 79c | 1,269$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 6c | 977.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 1c | 799.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 5c | 787.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 698.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 9c | 688.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 637.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 5c | 561.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 23c | 524$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 15c | 499.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 12c | 446.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 443.63$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 15c | 434.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 13c | 298.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 15c | 296.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 286.05$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 7c | 276.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 27c | 272.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 255.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 253.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 228.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 219.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 17c | 195$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 8c | 194$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 17c | 159.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…c22ebacked Yes | 12c | 159.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 15c | 158.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 138$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed Yes | 14c | 133.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 10c | 100.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 16c | 99.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 22c | 98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 14c | 92.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 89.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 19c | 89.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 80.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…b263backed Yes | 15c | 70.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…b29bbacked No | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 68c | 51.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 32.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 74c | 31.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 40c | 31.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 74c | 30.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…7ee2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 80c | 24.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked No | 73c | 21.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 72c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.