Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d230c0de7f9d6fa2866245e643255d355be1a5157ce1f3f9e186147baa81fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,030 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 3,620$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.79 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 2,008$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.47 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 21c | 967.34$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 15c | 699.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 76c | 658.87$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.67 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 79c | 565.4$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 561.72$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 4c | 512$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 23c | 434.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 18c | 340.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eba…3feabacked Yes | 30c | 331.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 75c | 318.5$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 300.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 17c | 293.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 279.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 15c | 245.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 237.79$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 225.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 23c | 199.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 17c | 199.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 175.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 158.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 17c | 147.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 138$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 19c | 135.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 30c | 135.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 78c | 135.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 135.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 128.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…f552backed Yes | 19c | 119$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…eaf9backed Yes | 18c | 112.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 111.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 15c | 107.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 27c | 100.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 100.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 79c | 90.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 29c | 88.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 85.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 28c | 85.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 83.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 74c | 81.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 26c | 78.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 26c | 75.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 77c | 74.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 71.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 30c | 67.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…fe21backed No | 79c | 67.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…35d3backed No | 79c | 67.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 66.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 22c | 60.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 60.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…e288backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 25c | 49.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 49.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 78c | 46.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 74c | 43.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 67c | 37.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 34c | 36.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…a654backed No | 73c | 34.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 73c | 30.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa989…3a6fbacked No | 78c | 29.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 71c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 27.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 27.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed No | 79c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 25.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…ce9abacked No | 71c | 22.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfae…b5ccbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…58febacked No | 75c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba8…fa04backed No | 75c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x96f7…2073backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…0ba3backed No | 75c | 18.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 74c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 59c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf2…f9f6backed No | 78c | 18.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 16.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6624…5a93backed No | 73c | 14.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 80c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 14.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f7…af3ebacked No | 80c | 12.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d7…be6dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.