Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf41e254946369f59f711ebbd735cec4f4fe36eff4485180e479730b82c5f9a86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,378 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 44c | 2,266$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,101$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.85 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed Yes | 24c | 1,001$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.18 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 55c | 846.07$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 48c | 757.59$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.9 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 43c | 711.79$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.48 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 48c | 700$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…2f7dbacked No | 76c | 630.09$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 58c | 363.57$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 38c | 349.01$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…3292backed Yes | 58c | 328.63$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 310.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 42c | 288.19$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 273.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 26c | 240.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.93 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 19c | 206$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.84 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 54c | 186.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 59c | 180.21$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 56c | 167.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 61c | 158.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 34c | 156.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed Yes | 48c | 153.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 58c | 153.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…bddcbacked No | 67c | 148.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 138$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 132.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 77c | 130.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 18c | 129.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed Yes | 40c | 125.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 25c | 123.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 16c | 108.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 77c | 105.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 47c | 105.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 66c | 100.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 42c | 96.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 76c | 83.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 77c | 82.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 37c | 80.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 49c | 76.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 19c | 72.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 70.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked Yes | 22c | 69.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 66.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 64c | 63.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 51c | 61.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 57.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 44c | 52.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 52.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed No | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 49.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 48.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…5af1backed Yes | 51c | 44.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 78c | 41.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 35c | 38.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes | 54c | 38.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 43c | 35.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 75c | 34.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 30.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 74c | 30.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 34c | 30.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 61c | 28.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 48c | 28.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked No | 56c | 26.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…10fabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…a758backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…488cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 16.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.