Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfabff68f2a57a808bce3de8f04955abcbe2d1debccd2f8852fd25b5d286bc7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,010 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1502…83ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,666$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…0a24backed Yes | 2c | 1,485$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 2c | 1,186$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c5…926dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,063$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 13c | 1,053$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 18c | 856.66$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 734.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 26c | 732.47$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 8c | 660.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 600.36$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.27 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 495.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 450.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 443.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 431.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 9c | 395.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 389$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 373.7$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed Yes | 5c | 360$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 20c | 347.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 12c | 344.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 16c | 319.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 316.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 299.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 26c | 292.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 14c | 282.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 77c | 256.11$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 246.71$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 9c | 225.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 224.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa458…f08dbacked Yes | 23c | 211.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 21c | 191.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 188$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 185.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 176.7$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3159…5f35backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 78c | 169.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 154.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 14c | 153$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 27c | 149.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 20c | 147.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 10c | 128$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…1f69backed Yes | 12c | 124.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…108ebacked Yes | 9c | 116.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 18c | 108.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 36c | 106.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 101.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked Yes | 16c | 100.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 25c | 99.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 98.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 24c | 97.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 92.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 16c | 90.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…3df6backed Yes | 19c | 90.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389e…3179backed Yes | 17c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eac…dc78backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 27c | 82.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 78.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 27c | 78.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea7d…15f3backed Yes | 20c | 76.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 30c | 73.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…dec7backed Yes | 17c | 70.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 79c | 67.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 78c | 66.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 23c | 66.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 73c | 63.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 78c | 60.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 56.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…5482backed Yes | 29c | 54.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…702abacked Yes | 22c | 52.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed Yes | 26c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 22c | 50.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 43.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 78c | 43.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…9e5cbacked Yes | 35c | 42.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed No | 73c | 37.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 73c | 35.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…58febacked No | 76c | 35.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…1d57backed Yes | 32c | 32.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 30.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…8851backed No | 70c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 78c | 28.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 78c | 28.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfea9…2a8fbacked No | 75c | 28.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…c2bcbacked No | 70c | 28.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.