Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754ead427e29b479fea41960f581c008bb686c2e86942095b25b1947672d2fd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,125 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 1,613$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,364$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf7…71ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,343$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,072$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 7c | 574.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 5c | 549.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa458…f08dbacked Yes | 12c | 461.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 18c | 445.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 4c | 398.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 389.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 13c | 389$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed Yes | 3c | 376.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 6c | 335.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 6c | 281.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 10c | 272.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 15c | 264.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 77c | 221$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 25c | 205$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 6c | 204.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 200.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 11c | 188.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a098backed Yes | 10c | 130.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 100.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 94.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed Yes | 13c | 85.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 24c | 82.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…5b7dbacked Yes | 15c | 81.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 79.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 64.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…2da7backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.