Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1e4946bc553fd45e49a530c361ea8cc554071d77ec6151d46e6555fcae2e6b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,741 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed No | 53c | 6,000$3,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,186.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…a177backed No | 1c | 2,232$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,400$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed No | 2c | 1,086$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 36c | 1,047$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.89 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 57c | 850.01$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.4 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 819.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 6c | 692.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 45c | 629.97$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.47 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 74c | 600.71$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.47 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3d…de22backed No | 33c | 598.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +137%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 597.47$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.68 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 5c | 546.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…0a24backed No | 2c | 505.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 421.56$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 405.89$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 403.92$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 23c | 392.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 49c | 389$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.38 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 28c | 365.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 51c | 349.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.81 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 42c | 341.65$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 62c | 333.03$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 37c | 330.1$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 37c | 318.58$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 73c | 308.65$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 56c | 261.47$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 23c | 260.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 4c | 259.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 79c | 252.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 15c | 246.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 32c | 240.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.24 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 58c | 228.61$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 46c | 217.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 22c | 209.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 202.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…1103backed Yes | 54c | 189.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 23c | 178.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 54c | 175.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0adc…c214backed Yes | 60c | 174.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +425.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 54c | 169.23$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 61c | 167.07$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…04e5backed No | 45c | 165.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 23c | 163.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed No | 29c | 158.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 74c | 155.65$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…e908backed Yes | 50c | 151.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 63c | 149.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 44c | 133.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…e2a1backed Yes | 67c | 128.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 117.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 22c | 116.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 59c | 114.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 53c | 110.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 42c | 109.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2f…9b75backed No | 32c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 72c | 106.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…fb5abacked Yes | 58c | 106.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +237%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 40c | 105.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 31c | 105.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…398cbacked Yes | 65c | 100.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 49c | 99.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes | 50c | 95.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 53c | 94.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 34c | 92.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4eb…014fbacked No | 43c | 91.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 60c | 90.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked Yes | 62c | 88.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 18c | 88.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 29c | 87.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774c…d9d0backed Yes | 41c | 84.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 73c | 83.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 48c | 83.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…e232backed Yes | 80c | 82.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed No | 50c | 79.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…db26backed Yes | 67c | 79.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 77c | 78.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 66c | 78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 41c | 76.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 47c | 75.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…e573backed Yes | 67c | 74.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 51c | 73.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 71c | 70.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 71c | 70.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.