TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,741 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdfca…2db8backed No53c6,000$3,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,186.891020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a66…a177backed No1c2,232$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes13c1,400$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2181822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaffc…ce04backed No2c1,086$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.83810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes36c1,047$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.8931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes57c850.01$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.416036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No10c819.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4659742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No6c692.13$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1234617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99cb…4bc2backed No45c629.97$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.475257.7%30 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes74c600.71$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.471,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3d…de22backed No33c598.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+137%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No60c597.47$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.6891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No5c546.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3371823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f23…0a24backed No2c505.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No46c421.56$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.682,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c405.89$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.963,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes79c403.92$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9257659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No23c392.68$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes49c389$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.381,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No28c365.02$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.111,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes51c349.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No42c341.65$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.673,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes62c333.03$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.0423231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No37c330.1$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.141,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No37c318.58$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9438840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes73c308.65$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1577428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4528718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72f3…92d6backed Yes56c261.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.825862.1%36 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5f…7014backed Yes23c260.32$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.323619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No4c259.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.071,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes79c252.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.63855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No15c246.68$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.121,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes32c240.68$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.249626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes58c228.61$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.15527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No46c217.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.196674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No22c209.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No48c202.95$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes45c199.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc70…1103backed Yes54c189.99$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.041241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No23c178.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.418,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7961…eaa8backed Yes54c175.94$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.036973.9%51 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0adc…c214backed Yes60c174.34$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.71366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+425.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes54c169.23$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.611,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes61c167.07$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.837229.2%21 W · 51 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c8…04e5backed No45c165.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes23c163.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7224216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x324f…15b1backed No29c158.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.944022.5%9 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes74c155.65$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8718041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No13c153.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…e908backed Yes50c151.13$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.131216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes19c150$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes63c149.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.540438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4635…6c48backed Yes69c145$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.956735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No44c133.13$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1421676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7576…e2a1backed Yes67c128.53$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c127.96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.232,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No27c117.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes22c116.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.724415.9%7 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes59c114.94$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8611227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes53c110.09$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.154337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes42c109.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7910650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe2f…9b75backed No32c108$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66aa…5203backed Yes72c106.18$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.715042%21 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe713…fb5abacked Yes58c106.07$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.47560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+237%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No40c105.88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.931868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No31c105.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3332548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes57c105$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.78641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d51…398cbacked Yes65c100.67$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4625029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0645…c08ebacked Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.876338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159819.4%19 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0d…4ed5backed No49c99.79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.392951.7%15 W · 14 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-31.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes50c95.34$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.273023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes53c94.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.127233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a7…4aa3backed No34c92.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.211735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4eb…014fbacked No43c91.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes60c90.67$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.243,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x762d…872abacked Yes62c88.76$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.472944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed Yes18c88.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.3532652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes29c87.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2974023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x774c…d9d0backed Yes41c84.49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.491942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes73c83.68$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4661659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x711a…ce09backed Yes48c83.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.091833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x871a…e232backed Yes80c82.18$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb68…ac20backed No50c79.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.681963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe28…db26backed Yes67c79.15$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes77c78.84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4131567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No66c78$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1816355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae4…bd41backed No41c76.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.423345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No47c75.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.847375.3%55 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1411540%46 W · 69 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes60c75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3014338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7c8…e573backed Yes67c74.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62e1…4e25backed No51c73.67$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.783557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.421533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes71c70.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.383333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes71c70.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4115911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.