Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e619f53aec65d235cad8a1a393d7136fa573eac9008bcfe59924d401ec3692d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 0c | 27,114$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 4c | 1,735$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 24c | 1,400$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 1,389$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 4c | 1,275$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 6c | 1,096$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 5c | 1,033$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0226…a6fabacked Yes | 1c | 958.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 67c | 849.82$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.75 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 710.1$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 56c | 649.13$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.11 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 633.57$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 23c | 533.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.39 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 25c | 495.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 23c | 486.2$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 25c | 473.36$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 470.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 78c | 470.19$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 56c | 444.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 22c | 420.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 371.16$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 7c | 355.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 354.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 330.28$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 17c | 313.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…75fabacked Yes | 20c | 298.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 24c | 293.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 281.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 280.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 56c | 270.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 264.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…bb82backed Yes | 35c | 256.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 77c | 254$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…4fbcbacked Yes | 6c | 230.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 67c | 226.32$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 51c | 206.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 20c | 205.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 43c | 191.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 24c | 190.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…c940backed Yes | 67c | 189.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 18c | 188.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 24c | 179.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 31c | 169.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 50c | 164.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 31c | 152.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 79c | 144.68$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 22c | 144.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 61c | 143.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…a12cbacked Yes | 63c | 142.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe945…5fbbbacked Yes | 28c | 139.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 68c | 137.58$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 28c | 135.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 35c | 132.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 13c | 131.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 129.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 72c | 129.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 65c | 125.41$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe737…64c1backed Yes | 27c | 120.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 120.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 72c | 118$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…b096backed Yes | 25c | 117.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 76c | 110.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 27c | 108.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 19c | 106.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 17c | 105.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 77c | 104.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 102.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 50c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 29c | 98.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…1dafbacked No | 77c | 98.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 60c | 90.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 36c | 89.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 25c | 89.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 49c | 88.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 25c | 87.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 25c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 49c | 80.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 30c | 79.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes | 36c | 78.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 45c | 77.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 73.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 23c | 73.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 54c | 72.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 34c | 71.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 69.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 21c | 67.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 65.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed Yes | 21c | 57.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 55.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 20c | 55.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…e7dcbacked Yes | 40c | 53.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 19c | 52.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…f943backed Yes | 45c | 52.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 52.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.