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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$114,557
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,982

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,557 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c82…8047backed No0c23,247$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No2c8,251$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.188,30949.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L+271.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes28c1,627$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.856,85439.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L+266.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes3c1,206$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.1596620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed No13c1,118$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.895332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No4c653.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2936819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes19c649.96$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.9610120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes5c648.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.5134618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes2c612.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.92,27214.8%336 W · 1,936 L+52.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No20c611.29$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.77,2319.3%675 W · 6,556 L-1,115.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3975…75fabacked Yes5c565.69$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.976918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No5c543.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes28c523.35$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.48151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c496.08$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.4812,47746.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L-43.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b9…5447backed Yes3c495.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.671450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+263.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes20c446.72$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.3257527.8%160 W · 415 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3886004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef5…84c7backed Yes3c355.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.491926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+133.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4674…03cabacked Yes66c345.35$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.532185.7%18 W · 3 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+37.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes14c340.63$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.891,09329.6%324 W · 769 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed No6c297.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9413315%20 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes21c288.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.491,73018%311 W · 1,419 L+73.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes17c283.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.6677428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes53c242.21$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.731,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaac…3aaebacked No5c233.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c226.11$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.3817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No17c224$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.416219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes20c220.36$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.611,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x726c…e6f0backed Yes18c216.21$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.297936.7%29 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes20c210.31$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.251631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes17c201.42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.7741147%193 W · 218 L+58.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+59.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd843…5062backed No8c198.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes19c197.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.131,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No18c179.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2926327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes18c173.17$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.441,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d6…f22ebacked Yes24c157.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.05825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66c2…85f4backed Yes7c151.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.763930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+106.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No22c150.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.591,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes18c149.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9923035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe945…5fbbbacked Yes20c135.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.451040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes15c135$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,65547.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc368…f943backed Yes18c127.76$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.81520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No17c127.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.891,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No60c119.01$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9132652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes21c116.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3461659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes19c116.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.453271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked No22c111.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3411449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes12c109.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1893134%317 W · 614 L+53.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes18c108.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.559,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed Yes21c100.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1613959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c99.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.996,11149.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L-116.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9386…b2b7backed Yes19c95.61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+62.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes26c92.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5314632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes70c91.64$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.495836.2%21 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c85.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.824,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b7…b30abacked No42c84.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.475474.1%40 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes18c79.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.267326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed No79c76.88$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.525565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes20c69.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3222028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes69c66.71$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.394835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes34c63.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.826737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes18c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.212828.1%36 W · 92 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,32734.1%452 W · 875 L+46.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes55c58.46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.042,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes72c56.25$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.613260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.885,16168.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L+71.4wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No79c55.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8429770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,02831.3%949 W · 2,079 L+40.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes25c48.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6627732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No45c43.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7821848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c34.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2812,87920.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L-2,688.9wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xda66…4aeebacked No79c31.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.472365.2%15 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23f7…d5e9backed No80c30.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.792250%11 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.879363.4%503 W · 290 L-2.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No76c28.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1654966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c32…7f32backed No75c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes76c20.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8814062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No78c20.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0476371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No55c20.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.036643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f07…c0ecbacked No77c19.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4925…8f6cbacked No78c18.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.279858.2%57 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked No80c17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.613663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.