TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$262,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$222,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,579 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes1c33,238$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.665332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes1c32,832$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.088,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes0c20,560$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.111,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes0c18,002$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1826142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes0c10,901$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes0c10,717$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.831,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes1c10,557$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2996620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes1c8,298$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.216625.8%17 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes13c1,646$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.7210120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked Yes2c1,612$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.576526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes1c1,352$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c1,352$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.146,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes35c1,154$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40216335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb33…4afbbacked Yes1c809.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes21c579.5$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1443139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes2c570.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.229741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes29c521.42$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.6556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c480.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.932,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes26c454.83$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.838151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes16c447.29$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8670133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes6c440$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5626327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes11c427.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes15c406.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3336648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes22c406.59$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12423035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes7c393.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.634918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes16c364.57$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.192,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes14c339.15$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.131,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes4c317.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.76523.8%2 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+93.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes5c301.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.971,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked No68c292.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes6c255.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x58d6…f22ebacked Yes31c232.75$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.15825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c228.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No66c223.21$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.897659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3975…75fabacked Yes13c209.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.996918.8%13 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10735.5%4 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+161.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc368…f943backed Yes24c199.45$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes23c192.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.961,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes22c178.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.181,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No69c176.84$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.828042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c142.22$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.514,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa502…4c89backed No70c138.57$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.571662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No64c135.13$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6519152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes35c129.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8814632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes20c128.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6793034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No68c127.38$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2228737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe737…64c1backed Yes33c118.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes25c117.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7961659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c117.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0226…a6fabacked Yes10c106.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No67c104.78$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5832652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3556118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed Yes23c95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.37518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes40c93.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1412735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes32c93.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8215626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes25c84.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9420835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes12c83.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0541046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes22c79.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4222028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No65c77.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2199962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes32c74.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.867326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c74.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.272,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3183…d6fbbacked Yes44c73.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.891323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-53.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes23c68.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.953,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9386…b2b7backed Yes29c63.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+62.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0774…e15abacked Yes30c61.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d3…a41dbacked Yes32c61.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f5…1ad7backed No66c61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.746479.7%51 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No67c59.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5930859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No66c59.36$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.28366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No68c59.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9227167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes40c57.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.324569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No75c56.93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes24c50.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1425536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c50.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.035,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb28…08ccbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+90.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes28c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9286847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No80c48.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9410569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No72c48.61$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5435168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked No68c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7213663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef5…0366backed Yes30c44.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.422339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes32c43.69$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.989344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c41.83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.463,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes36c41.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8349750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No74c39.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.092,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes27c38.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.276336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x801a…5a2dbacked No79c35.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe945…5fbbbacked Yes30c34.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.561040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed Yes34c32.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0313959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…c61bbacked No80c32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.45655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.278663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No78c29.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6354966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes47c28.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.471,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xd6de…d6bbbacked No79c24.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.18742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No54c24.59$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.314,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.