Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09ebb97fb159851d146ff662368c32203553a575abe33e3bef2fe26348b28841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,782 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53fe…5b95backed No | 10c | 5,347$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386f…db83backed No | 1c | 2,521$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed No | 4c | 1,992$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…0951backed No | 4c | 1,950$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 28c | 1,489$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.97 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 919.62$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.07 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901d…30fdbacked No | 1c | 829.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 768.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…bce9backed No | 5c | 599.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 533$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 53c | 487.34$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.44 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 41c | 466.51$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.54 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 15c | 431.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.6 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 19c | 402.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 400$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Yes | 20c | 354.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.47 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 25c | 323.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.03 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 52c | 261.47$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.48 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 71c | 236.3$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 25c | 233.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 213.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 22c | 192.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 187.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 145.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 14c | 142$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 40c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed No | 72c | 131.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 76c | 131.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 16c | 128.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.21 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 14c | 116.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 14c | 113.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 103.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 102.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 16c | 99.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.94 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 34c | 94.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 66c | 91.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…e198backed Yes | 12c | 90.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 89.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 89.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 79.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 16c | 78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 77.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 67.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaed…c618backed Yes | 29c | 55.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 50.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 76c | 45.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 29c | 36.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 34c | 35.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 57c | 34.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 76c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6883…4406backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 75c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…0ba3backed No | 79c | 16.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 78c | 15.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.