Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f72a61bd623a587ff7ba7ce6d0d31ba8f2a6d21dc3c38e082ac4dae002f60e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,126 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 19c | 566.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 20c | 535.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 528$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 511.26$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.49 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 79c | 478.93$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 25c | 402.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 382.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 333.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 22c | 304.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 15c | 261.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 205.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 12c | 168.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 136.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 120.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 71c | 118.68$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 105.16$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 87.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 47c | 86.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 19c | 81.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 35c | 79.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 70.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 68.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 54.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 54.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 78c | 30.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 66c | 30.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 72c | 20.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…99eabacked No | 78c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 75c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 70c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.