TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,939 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6045…b2e7backed Yes58c1,320$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.511435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No59c790.66$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.4358349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes38c749.83$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.7395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes44c705.67$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.6977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes14c692.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2831341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes33c689.12$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.291,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes28c664.89$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.526,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes34c595.22$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes24c593.04$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.612814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe758…2e61backed Yes2c550$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes73c548.97$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c537.59$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No55c519.84$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.5160523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c480.01$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.554,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No69c392.43$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.152,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes11c357.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5834617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa05…6140backed Yes6c355.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked No25c345.11$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.832846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No73c322.85$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.925981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes56c320.58$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.891,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe013…764fbacked Yes6c302.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.26744.8%30 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes35c282.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c269.86$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes53c267$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9733139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c265.16$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.291,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No67c262.82$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.732,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes79c253.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007070%49 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes38c247.17$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8310120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e55…9a76backed Yes67c240.93$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.541850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Yes5c231$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.553710.8%4 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No70c211.63$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9252571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes33c211$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.491,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c210.15$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.78,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No78c202.52$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.792,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes64c201.37$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.875453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3744…93debacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes66c199.5$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.734228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No63c197.57$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.051,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43f2…e722backed Yes61c190.06$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.122245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No70c181.01$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9422675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9a7…8a4dbacked Yes28c178.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6358…c907backed No46c173.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c7d…abc6backed Yes31c172.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf112…d9e1backed Yes59c172.59$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes20c172.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes22c169.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.681,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes23c154.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9135018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63c0…7c44backed No38c154$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No26c153.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.198551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No75c153.06$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.581,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b60…19a7backed Yes9c152.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.291020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cfd…a801backed Yes62c151.37$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Yes59c149.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes76c146.61$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5417338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No36c139.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.93652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes33c136.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No61c132.64$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.961,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes33c130.23$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.723,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes30c129.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3811337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c14…f7eabacked No45c129$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes28c127.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5220534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.911146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa29d…747bbacked Yes29c123.67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.33511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick16cpaid+208%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd077…46c0backed No22c123$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.491040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes12c121.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.636336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes29c119.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.731729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b28…d9c1backed No25c116.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.176033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No78c115.14$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1415570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes32c113.81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4211128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No28c109.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.236819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a0d…b782backed Yes35c109.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2328…e304backed Yes46c109.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed Yes42c107.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x883a…f76bbacked No70c107.14$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.144744.7%21 W · 26 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes70c106.4$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.482832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes33c105.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5129653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be1…79f3backed Yes37c105.76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.641963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes29c104.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.458551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No72c103.93$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9315155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes28c103.75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.032,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes25c102.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.521,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes24c101.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3556721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x798b…d699backed Yes48c101.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-59.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe768…10efbacked Yes40c100.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011355.8%63 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1711731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc862…65afbacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0645…c08ebacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc805…760dbacked Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6811145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba3a…e041backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked No70c99.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes36c99.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4963538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca7…a2d4backed Yes62c99.61$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes13c99.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2116651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f3c…d85dbacked Yes52c98.93$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.921650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked No35c96.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.846934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.