TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,311

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,311 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes3c1,381$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8831341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1823…be60backed Yes11c1,329$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.07911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-60.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes10c924.41$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.818,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes9c882.71$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9660523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes13c770.64$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.361,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3744…93debacked Yes1c738.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes9c668.16$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.026,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c597.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.282,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes28c574.9$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6045…b2e7backed Yes12c523.67$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes12c523.26$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.781,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes14c469.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.71,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c406.14$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.414,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes7c403.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9833620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes12c401.69$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.722814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf884…0364backed Yes4c383.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.782944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes19c346.31$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes21c333.57$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.931,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b7…bfe9backed Yes19c306.43$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+46.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes9c303.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.366004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3323035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d57…63d8backed Yes37c299.99$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.251729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes51c253.24$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.016835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c252.55$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.133,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes28c236.31$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6515133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c235.42$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.287,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes43c211$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.741,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No80c204.99$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5749675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes50c201.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No71c200.16$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.331,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.254228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4210…dd70backed Yes51c196.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017040%68 W · 102 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes25c159.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes13c147$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6317338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes9c144.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9752245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes49c142.31$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.291,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No57c138.29$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.743,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes13c138$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9459818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f4…be05backed No61c137.34$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes16c131.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5843021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes11c130$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51a1…8981backed No56c129.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.134862.5%30 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c7…eea3backed Yes34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2328…e304backed Yes9c126.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c119.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.617,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdd84…23e6backed Yes26c118$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c112.92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes34c107.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e55…9a76backed Yes43c107.53$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.631850%9 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x798b…d699backed Yes48c104.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-59.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb623…2b85backed Yes27c102$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No55c101.4$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.521,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes15c100.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0645…c08ebacked Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.66338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b07…e4c5backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398748.3%42 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3be1…79f3backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.311963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba3a…e041backed Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.89927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Yes32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328124.7%20 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa042…6d0cbacked No72c98$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa191…10b5backed Yes24c93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes48c92.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes17c92.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.521919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No74c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.76163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5864…e473backed Yes42c89.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes33c89.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.416234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes34c88.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No68c86.93$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.822,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes25c82.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3822028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes18c81.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155721.1%12 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes20c79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1932044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes36c76.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5618337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes22c74.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e2c2backed No65c74.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.791030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No63c73.14$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.72,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1411…6b02backed Yes16c72.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No68c72.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.031,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3c…e044backed Yes29c69.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes45c64.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2942438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a1…89f9backed Yes31c64.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b9…66aabacked No78c63.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.731553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes18c62.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.241,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes36c61.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.916719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.811337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.825536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7555…c246backed Yes40c59.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f07…10a3backed Yes36c59.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f10…0060backed Yes45c55.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256931.9%22 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.851,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x151b…ef82backed No57c52.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.668955.1%49 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No49c51.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.221,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5976…d78ebacked No76c51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes40c50.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3211128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2544448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d6…1935backed No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa00…18b1backed No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.