Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6a0cfe4bd8d2b3cf3b476ad5efaf7599e3d3379001ab25b2cbb43ae06354f7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,311 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 3c | 1,381$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…be60backed Yes | 11c | 1,329$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 924.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 9c | 882.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 770.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…93debacked Yes | 1c | 738.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 668.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 597.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 574.9$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…b2e7backed Yes | 12c | 523.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 523.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 469.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 406.14$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 403.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 401.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 4c | 383.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 346.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 333.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…bfe9backed Yes | 19c | 306.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 9c | 303.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…63d8backed Yes | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 51c | 253.24$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.01 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 252.55$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 28c | 236.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 235.42$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 211$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 204.99$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 50c | 201.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 200.16$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 51c | 196.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes | 25c | 159.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 13c | 147$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 9c | 144.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 142.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 138.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 13c | 138$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…be05backed No | 61c | 137.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 16c | 131.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 56c | 129.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…eea3backed Yes | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…e304backed Yes | 9c | 126.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 119.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…23e6backed Yes | 26c | 118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 112.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 34c | 107.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 43c | 107.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798b…d699backed Yes | 48c | 104.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…2b85backed Yes | 27c | 102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 55c | 101.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 15c | 100.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be1…79f3backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…6d0cbacked No | 72c | 98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa191…10b5backed Yes | 24c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 92.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 17c | 92.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…e473backed Yes | 42c | 89.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 33c | 89.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 34c | 88.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 86.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 25c | 82.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 18c | 81.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 20c | 79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 36c | 76.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 22c | 74.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e2c2backed No | 65c | 74.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 63c | 73.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1411…6b02backed Yes | 16c | 72.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 68c | 72.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…e044backed Yes | 29c | 69.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 45c | 64.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Yes | 31c | 64.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b9…66aabacked No | 78c | 63.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 62.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 36c | 61.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…c246backed Yes | 40c | 59.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f07…10a3backed Yes | 36c | 59.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 45c | 55.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 57c | 52.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 51.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…d78ebacked No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 40c | 50.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…18b1backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.