Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39151c09788af7905b3278c567b0c5c942f3e4d4b54e7dc312e52cc066d3426b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,056 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 4,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,057$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.19 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…6faebacked Yes | 11c | 1,283$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.37 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…1019backed No | 2c | 1,146$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 884.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes | 12c | 839.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.42 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 30c | 737.91$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.74 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 22c | 724.37$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.34 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 50c | 683.73$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.13 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 668.19$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 3c | 612$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.64 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 606.67$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.96 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 4c | 594.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 13c | 581.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.28 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 15c | 483.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.46 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 480$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.72 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 466.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.81 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 440.13$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 7c | 422.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 379.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 15c | 370.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.08 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 10c | 368.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.27 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 54c | 348.84$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.42 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 61c | 342.76$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.74 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 7c | 340.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.12 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 340.05$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 17c | 332.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.16 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 324.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.71 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f5…1904backed Yes | 9c | 320.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 316.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.8 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 15c | 293.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.81 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 13c | 291.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 281.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.14 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 11c | 280.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.97 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 24c | 274.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.24 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 260.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.35 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 260.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.26 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 244.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 29c | 234.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.69 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 218.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.47 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 217.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.93 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…9ae8backed Yes | 15c | 213.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 212.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.48 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 8c | 211$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.24 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.96 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…99aebacked Yes | 73c | 199.25$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 9c | 192.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.63 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 30c | 181.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b37…8f10backed Yes | 12c | 169.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Yes | 12c | 167.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 38c | 156.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…3489backed No | 39c | 153.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes | 27c | 145.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 56c | 145.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes | 15c | 140.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 9c | 136.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.88 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…1950backed Yes | 8c | 136.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +279.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 11c | 132.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 129.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 13c | 128.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.68 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…6dbcbacked Yes | 20c | 124.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +396.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 21c | 123.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 12c | 119.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…c2f6backed Yes | 17c | 118$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 115.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 114$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.63 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 16c | 103.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb62…6747backed Yes | 10c | 102.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb5…93bbbacked No | 18c | 100.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb44…e0b5backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…2c0bbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…3375backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 80c | 95.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 85.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 79c | 83.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 40c | 82.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…13cdbacked Yes | 14c | 75.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +269.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 52c | 73.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 53.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…5c46backed Yes | 42c | 53.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1417…38afbacked Yes | 80c | 51.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 47c | 49.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 52c | 45.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 44.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 52c | 43.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or below on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.