TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,056 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c4,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes13c2,057$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.1935018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f82…6faebacked Yes11c1,283$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.372015%3 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0943…1019backed No2c1,146$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes12c884.55$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.338,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x295b…0f1dbacked Yes12c839.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.422729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes30c737.91$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.7431341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes22c724.37$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.3424216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes50c683.73$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.1395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes54c668.19$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.636,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes3c612$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.6490734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes28c606.67$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.9677428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes4c594.49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.61,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes13c581.26$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.2885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes15c483.67$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.4610120.8%21 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes7c480$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.721,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes13c466.64$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.811,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes67c440.13$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.252,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b28…d9c1backed No7c422.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.856033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes10c379.94$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.2717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes15c370.97$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.0828718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes10c368.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.271,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No54c348.84$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4230664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No61c342.76$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.741,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed Yes7c340.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.1212540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No64c340.05$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.024,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes17c332.16$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.1617135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes6c324.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.712347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f5…1904backed Yes9c320.66$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.4922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes23c316.74$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.81,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes15c293.89$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.8156721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes13c291.32$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.11,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes10c281.33$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.141,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes11c280.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.9719148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes24c274.69$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.2416651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c260.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.352,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes21c260.61$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.261,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes10c249.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.9943021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c244.26$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes29c234.69$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6960523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes11c218.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.473,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes12c217.6$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.931,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea0c…9ae8backed Yes15c213.91$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.91540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick13cpaid+96.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes12c212.48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.481,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes8c211$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.241,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18016432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes19c200$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.9633058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…99aebacked Yes73c199.25$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed Yes9c192.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.631,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed No30c181.73$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8814251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b37…8f10backed Yes12c169.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.091233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e4…f926backed Yes12c167.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.261833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes38c156.72$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.724235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ff5…3489backed No39c153.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a9…3ac2backed Yes27c145.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.631464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+56.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes56c145.34$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes15c140.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.321540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes9c136.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.885721.1%12 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5170…1950backed Yes8c136.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.68540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+279.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes11c132.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4419617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbea…76d0backed Yes17c130$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1083560%21 W · 14 L+6.0wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+67.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes12c129.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.783,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9536…68f9backed Yes13c128.44$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.686121.3%13 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5e…a98cbacked No80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabbe…6dbcbacked Yes20c124.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+396.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes21c123.67$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.18835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes12c119.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4114915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8dc…c2f6backed Yes17c118$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.48650%3 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+91.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c115.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.617,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes9c114$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.631,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed Yes16c103.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6715155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb62…6747backed Yes10c102.62$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.62728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+82.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb5…93bbbacked No18c100.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb44…e0b5backed No34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.98580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.818116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.429653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e3f…2c0bbacked No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d79…3375backed No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked No80c95.6$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.487860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c85.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.577,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x554a…96e3backed No79c83.19$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.973852.6%20 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No40c82.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.041,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd68…13cdbacked Yes14c75.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+269.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No78c75$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2449675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes52c73.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.295050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No65c53.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.851,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60a3…5c46backed Yes42c53.17$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+89.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1417…38afbacked Yes80c51.08$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes65c49.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ecc…d023backed Yes47c49.2$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.210647.2%50 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes52c45.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.244536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes77c44.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0257659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Yes52c43.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.892445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.