Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe291e9e7087fea6fc9df357a7666db5cd73d7d20aaca34874b70912f5164cc50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,587 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 9c | 1,282$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,010$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 5c | 600.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 23c | 548.47$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.73 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 496.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 469.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 345.72$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 24c | 333.04$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 332.72$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes | 22c | 311.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 308.76$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 7c | 285.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 283.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 278.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…00efbacked No | 73c | 262.35$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 23c | 259.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 258.56$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 6c | 251.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 25c | 241.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…b2aebacked Yes | 9c | 222.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf198…dfedbacked Yes | 20c | 218.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 27c | 216.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 7c | 211.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…ab36backed Yes | 27c | 208.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…792dbacked No | 78c | 197.49$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 195.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 32c | 191.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b37…8f10backed Yes | 11c | 178.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 9c | 169$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 146.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 12c | 146.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked Yes | 9c | 141.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 27c | 141.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 26c | 139.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 24c | 130.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed No | 79c | 127.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 8c | 123.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ec…6a6cbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…33bbbacked Yes | 22c | 119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 118.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 35c | 118.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 22c | 118$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 10c | 115.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc89c…6afebacked Yes | 20c | 115.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 26c | 114.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…ca80backed Yes | 23c | 106.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 106$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 14c | 104$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa1…bd4ebacked Yes | 11c | 99.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 98.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 14c | 97.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 95.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…a6e3backed Yes | 26c | 94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 33c | 92.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 12c | 90.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 23c | 88.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 24c | 88.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 13c | 85.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 84.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 29c | 82.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…cb17backed Yes | 17c | 69.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 68.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb35f…3e04backed Yes | 28c | 68.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 22c | 68.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 23c | 66.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 21c | 64.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…d64bbacked Yes | 25c | 60.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 59.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 25c | 58.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 53.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 72c | 52.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…956bbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked Yes | 25c | 49.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 30c | 49.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…f0ddbacked No | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae2…cd50backed Yes | 27c | 48.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860c…621abacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…617fbacked No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…60fcbacked No | 75c | 43.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…575ebacked Yes | 23c | 42.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…8f56backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 76c | 36.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 80c | 34.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.