TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,587 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes9c1,282$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes3c1,010$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8543021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes5c600.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0872222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes23c548.47$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.733625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes5c499.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes6c496.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c469.83$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.217,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No77c345.72$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9658349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c333.04$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.351,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No73c332.72$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes22c311.3$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.493828.9%11 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No73c308.76$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.253,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes7c285.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c283.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes5c278.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.741,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd469…00efbacked No73c262.35$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes23c259.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No77c258.56$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes6c251.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes25c241.46$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.264736.2%17 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef2b…b2aebacked Yes9c222.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.961526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf198…dfedbacked Yes20c218.23$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.791050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes27c216.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes7c211.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bab…ab36backed Yes27c208.35$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x049a…792dbacked No78c197.49$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.85742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No77c195.07$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.62,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes32c191.83$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7211337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b37…8f10backed Yes11c178.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes9c169$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.791,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes12c146.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes12c146.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2920144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdb5…b3cfbacked Yes9c141.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.372326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes27c141.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.554337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.852,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes26c139.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4952245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes24c130.63$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.093920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05a1…89f9backed No79c127.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.352334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes8c123.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.159046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69ec…6a6cbacked Yes22c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe073…abb2backed Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304427.3%12 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72c8…33bbbacked Yes22c119$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No79c118.86$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.261,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes35c118.15$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.356445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes22c118$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8611128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes10c115.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7227079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xc89c…6afebacked Yes20c115.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes26c114.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.919426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8268…ca80backed Yes23c106.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No75c106$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc440…6149backed Yes14c104$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.353426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaa1…bd4ebacked Yes11c99.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.57714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No74c98.7$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.852,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes14c97.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.041643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes19c95.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5259125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb924…a6e3backed Yes26c94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9532…7c44backed Yes33c92.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.43622.2%8 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes12c90.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.475527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2711835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes23c88.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes24c88.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8716520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc31…63a1backed Yes13c85.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.184334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+48%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes21c84.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.571,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes29c82.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9962555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No78c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7152571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes21c69.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.772466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4a2…cb17backed Yes17c69.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes16c68.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb35f…3e04backed Yes28c68.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes22c68.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes23c66.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5615911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes22c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1464333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes21c64.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3808…d64bbacked Yes25c60.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes21c59.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6620942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No74c59.38$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.441,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes25c58.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes23c53.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No72c52.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7431868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1035362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8cd…956bbacked No77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes25c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb99c…177abacked Yes25c49.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.541612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes30c49.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c44…f0ddbacked No77c49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae2…cd50backed Yes27c48.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x860c…621abacked No78c45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7b…617fbacked No78c44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe05d…60fcbacked No75c43.89$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.894100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbcb…575ebacked Yes23c42.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60e3…8f56backed No78c37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No76c36.24$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.72,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c15…90d5backed No80c34.27$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.873865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed No79c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9335232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.