TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,216 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb6ae…2b4cbacked No1c5,220$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…5f33backed No52c2,050$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d50…6c71backed Yes48c2,050$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe019…5fa7backed No52c2,012$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3409…69a7backed Yes48c2,012$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c51…d7aebacked No8c1,175$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.742825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No42c1,055$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.9927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes47c971.23$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.2495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes43c614.38$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.6717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes60c533.95$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.8831341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No8c533.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8234319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes75c516.89$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.431,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6036…cc41backed Yes41c438.47$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.459333.3%31 W · 62 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf198…dfedbacked No49c421.9$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.931050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No41c411.74$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.231,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No13c390.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No39c337.3$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6158349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes49c329.58$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.733625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d3…10f6backed No51c315.46$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bab…ab36backed Yes49c315.46$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes51c312.82$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.436,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes45c300.41$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.446445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed0f…b307backed No4c291.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.672729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No68c248.72$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.3342857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes65c232.13$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.712846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+104.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No57c229.2$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.933,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No62c225.04$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes36c208.19$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.239626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked No27c204.94$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5535018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3774…b424backed Yes47c204.16$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.114337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes66c196$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.267229.2%21 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No52c195.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1186050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No27c194.46$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9772222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa88f…83ebbacked No47c187.34$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes66c182.22$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8386226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes40c174.59$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6911337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab77…da8bbacked Yes37c172.87$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.911729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes49c169.95$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.817,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No49c168.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.91,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes60c158.22$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7720144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No55c158.16$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.741,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No50c152.96$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.438840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No39c151.23$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.41,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes41c149.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.994736.2%17 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No39c149.47$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.121,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No24c147.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.781,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ff…da6dbacked Yes68c147.27$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No51c145.34$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.181,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8576…646dbacked No45c145$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No30c144.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes53c141.79$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7915133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes55c137.3$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.311,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…dbe8backed Yes60c130.08$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.084353.5%23 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes12c128.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.736219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x101b…ea62backed Yes53c123.09$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.091050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes51c120$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.85141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes65c119$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0616036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf470…0994backed No14c118.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes47c117.84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.356852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06a8…f0c7backed No23c115.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes48c115$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.819426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc70…1103backed Yes50c114.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.751241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes57c114.22$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.839046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes44c112$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3133139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes48c109.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.210650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.242,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c108.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.738,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes30c107.87$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.221547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No13c106.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.642,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No19c105.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.191,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No49c101.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.591,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5096313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0213748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4912…eab8backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504030%12 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb254…c972backed Yes45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.991546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dfe…b4f9backed No50c99.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.766550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No37c97.41$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0218671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes52c97.1$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5511128.8%32 W · 79 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c93.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf884…0364backed Yes66c87.67$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.942944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes51c87$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d8c…0977backed Yes46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.966315.9%10 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No25c86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.212223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No57c81.48$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6531868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4148…d2f6backed Yes51c78.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.694062.5%25 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes57c75.85$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.485527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No66c75.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6670770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x884f…c132backed Yes67c74.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.642832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes48c73.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…fff5backed Yes56c70.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b7…17ccbacked Yes55c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357f…b6c5backed Yes54c64.94$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.943135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes45c63.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5333726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3808…d64bbacked Yes53c60.14$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.341250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes32c54.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.41,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes48c52.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.568551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.