Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x418f1b7ecb053065c9aa28c8c94088867111bafdf472b1b2228c8f76882332d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,502 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa90e…d0c6backed Yes | 37c | 2,706$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e30…bd17backed Yes | 31c | 2,683$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…1c10backed Yes | 37c | 2,662$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54c…637dbacked Yes | 37c | 2,636$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca4…2097backed Yes | 8c | 1,505$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 28c | 1,490$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.65 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf8…31c0backed No | 63c | 1,362$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf963…55cebacked No | 69c | 1,359$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ac…31c8backed No | 63c | 1,357$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…dc5dbacked No | 63c | 1,349$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…651ebacked No | 63c | 1,329$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…faf9backed No | 69c | 1,324$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…1248backed No | 63c | 1,307$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…c829backed No | 63c | 1,300$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,247$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 74c | 891.57$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.59 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 798.97$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.17 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Yes | 26c | 773.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 15c | 573.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 27c | 537.68$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.64 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…e400backed Yes | 20c | 501.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 26c | 499.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 13c | 499.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 484.39$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 74c | 473.38$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.54 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7156…cdf3backed Yes | 33c | 469.51$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 468.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 463.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 16c | 424.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 31c | 402.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd7…d506backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 7c | 396$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 389.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 385.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 46c | 381.68$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…d7aebacked Yes | 14c | 379.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 332.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 21c | 320.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 311.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 23c | 292.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 25c | 276.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 80c | 251.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 246.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 242.16$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 14c | 228.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 22c | 224.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 18c | 221.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 48c | 213.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 27c | 201.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 41c | 201.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 20c | 195.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 51c | 179.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 176.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 33c | 170.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 18c | 161.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 31c | 151$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 20c | 149.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 30c | 147$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 139.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 75c | 133.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 22c | 130.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 121.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 74c | 117.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf198…dfedbacked No | 72c | 116.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 25c | 113.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed No | 60c | 111.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 31c | 111.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 18c | 108.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…9758backed Yes | 19c | 108$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc139…dd51backed Yes | 18c | 108$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 29c | 105.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 48c | 104.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 10c | 103$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d1…f0f1backed Yes | 13c | 101.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 20c | 100.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 17c | 99.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…d8cfbacked No | 76c | 97.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 18c | 93.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 15c | 89.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 89.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 83.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 30c | 82.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 75.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 67c | 74.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 18c | 71.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.