Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca6b419283502f406ab5a84a11954a9fa12dbbfb172c6fdb56e4ba414f5db37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,594 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 5c | 1,838$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 14c | 1,718$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.05 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 2c | 1,170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 16c | 815.27$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 11c | 633.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 9c | 609.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 470.41$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.38 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 18c | 468.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 10c | 346.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 316.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 306.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 24c | 299.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 296.08$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 283.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 265.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 74c | 265$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 25c | 244.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 17c | 240.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 233$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 16c | 222.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 22c | 213.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 16c | 207.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes | 10c | 195.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 18c | 192.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 18c | 185$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 11c | 181.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 11c | 179.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 175.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 77c | 169.87$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 164.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 17c | 162.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 70c | 140.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 136.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked No | 71c | 117.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 16c | 117.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 36c | 117.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ee…4be5backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 19c | 100.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…99abbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…9b6fbacked Yes | 12c | 97.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 93.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 24c | 89.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…dd88backed Yes | 35c | 85.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 84.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 82.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 14c | 81.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 78.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 23c | 76.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 73.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6b…223dbacked Yes | 18c | 72.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 24c | 67.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 76c | 62.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3201…f37dbacked Yes | 18c | 58.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…0efebacked Yes | 18c | 57.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 23c | 48.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 43.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 42c | 41.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…a7c3backed Yes | 38c | 41.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 34.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…0836backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 76c | 31.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 80c | 31.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…df58backed No | 77c | 24.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 67c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 77c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 76c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 80c | 12.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.57 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.