TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,594 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes5c1,838$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7233726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes14c1,718$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.056852.9%36 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes2c1,170$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248834.1%30 W · 58 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes16c815.27$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7929137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes11c633.78$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2143021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70ab…c998backed Yes9c609.7$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.886137.7%23 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No77c470.41$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes18c468.69$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.465129.4%15 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes10c346.61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5358422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes10c316.94$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.962,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes15c306.08$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.731,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes24c299.56$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7274023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes24c296.08$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.541,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes9c283.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9636819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c265.85$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked No74c265$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8218255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes25c244.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1525839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes17c240.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4059440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c233$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.556,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes16c222.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3957545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes22c213.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3621448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes16c207.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1418116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes10c195.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.061546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick29cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes18c192.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.861,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes18c185$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.67860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes11c181.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203023.3%7 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes11c179.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0268521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes12c175.81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.841,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed No77c169.87$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3717665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c164.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes17c162.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.774136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7919…ca3fbacked No70c140.79$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.243452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes11c136.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.331,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked No71c117.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.093946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes16c117.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.693023.3%7 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed Yes36c117.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7310051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3ee…4be5backed Yes32c110$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.431323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes19c100.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.325725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6756…99abbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa895…faacbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620338.4%78 W · 125 L+30.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+177%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked Yes15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159819.4%19 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c26…9b6fbacked Yes12c97.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.392330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c93.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.282,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes24c89.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0129459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea4c…dd88backed Yes35c85.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.79137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick25cpaid-74.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No62c84.49$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes20c82.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes14c81.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.110154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed No63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3710247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes17c78.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.043,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes23c76.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9933243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.253,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes28c73.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5341460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a6b…223dbacked Yes18c72.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes17c70.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129724.7%24 W · 73 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a76…5584backed Yes24c67.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.465058%29 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d6…b8e3backed No76c62.32$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0214251.4%73 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3201…f37dbacked Yes18c58.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7655…0efebacked Yes18c57.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.28190%0 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes23c48.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1118164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No79c43.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes42c41.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6912330.1%37 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc64…a7c3backed Yes38c41.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.170770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6077…8a56backed No80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.510956.9%62 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No69c34.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8472466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7994…0836backed Yes30c34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No77c32.58$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.581,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe36c…375abacked No76c31.37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.532080%16 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No80c31.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.331567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f90…b54abacked No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.88459.5%50 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c14…35b8backed No72c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.564955.1%27 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked No79c25.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.444148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd0…df58backed No77c24.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.721770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed No67c21.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.098940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c0…8032backed No77c19.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.592347.8%11 W · 12 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick65cpaid-28.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x479e…56cabacked No76c19.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.636446.9%30 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No79c19.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked No69c17.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3930141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No67c14.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9528270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No80c12.85$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.