Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x556fe819f448bc73aeab4d4b2aca16c50ced2ba19f63cc7624b80925035e4aea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,663 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed No | 78c | 1,262$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.66 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f9…c7bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 520.54$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 398.94$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 19c | 292.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 31c | 287.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 29c | 264.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 250.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 243.25$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 25c | 202.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 24c | 186.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 16c | 166.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b7…0edabacked Yes | 18c | 163.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 30c | 145.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 134$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 133$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 124.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 33c | 121.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 74c | 109.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 108.94$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 23c | 108.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 105.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 24c | 98.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 76c | 98.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 34c | 97.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 79c | 94.9$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 13c | 91.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 83.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 82.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 24c | 82.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 69.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 69.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 67.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 22c | 62.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 17c | 61.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 57.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 72c | 53.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 52.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…bb18backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 23c | 48.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b19…3004backed Yes | 23c | 43.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 77c | 39.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 80c | 27.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed No | 76c | 26.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 78c | 25.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 21.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…e422backed No | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 75c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…8693backed No | 74c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.