Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1254feb07cbe93dc233dadcb5c30197833f40d58e41e14923ae4ac14b4e72fdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rutgers Scarlet Knightsof Michigan State Spartans, Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,532 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 50c | 9,344$4,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,674.63 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 4,720$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.06 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 49c | 3,816$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.22 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…ee95backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 991.25$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.63 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…5233backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 928.98$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 746.35$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.18 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 594.75$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.37 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 498.26$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…fd9dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 497.61$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 401.46$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.73 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 396.5$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 297.38$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 291.55$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 198.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 197.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 172 | 41.3%71 W · 101 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 118.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 116.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 110.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 104.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 98.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 91.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 77.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 60.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 55.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161f…d3f4backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 241 | 48.5%117 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-18.5)this page
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 140.5Over won
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 141.5Over won
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 142.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-19.5)Rutgers Scarlet Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.