Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-19.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cd68c572b9c306aa74a0dfef42f9f8e42a699ca4e57304c480999196ec1b767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rutgers Scarlet Knightsof Michigan State Spartans, Rutgers Scarlet Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,792 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 50c | 3,628$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.28 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…52cabacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 1,983$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6094…e860backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 1,899$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 1,483$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.29 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 50c | 215$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 130.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 56c | 85.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan State Spartans | 44c | 70.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 50.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…ec4bbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 53c | 40.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-19.5)this page
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 140.5Over won
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 141.5Over won
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 142.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-18.5)Rutgers Scarlet Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.