Commodities · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6cc29801e7dd1da65dde2e6b29bb4b6ec3f32e86dd321825ff2c6c91fa55253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad1b…aa5abacked Yes | 22c | 13,592$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 6c | 5,330$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.07 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 13c | 4,932$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2a…6bf9backed Yes | 16c | 3,766$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 15c | 3,576$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.54 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…4466backed Yes | 20c | 3,239$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 62c | 3,206$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 36c | 3,188$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e3…0c77backed No | 80c | 2,884$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 79c | 2,159$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.37 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 11c | 1,625$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,499$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked No | 77c | 1,375$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 26c | 1,362$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 39c | 1,300$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 18c | 1,200$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.99 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 75c | 885.98$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 822.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 811.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 784.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 775.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed No | 66c | 752.83$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 23c | 674.01$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe51d…d1ecbacked Yes | 15c | 648.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 614.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 605.48$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.74 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 73c | 590$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.08 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 74c | 570$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…2e0dbacked No | 79c | 568.1$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 557.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed Yes | 16c | 506.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…6bb8backed No | 78c | 500$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 3c | 497.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed Yes | 17c | 491.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…1be2backed Yes | 16c | 476.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…04d1backed Yes | 15c | 466$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 17c | 453.22$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 80c | 425.85$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.17 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 24c | 417.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…0fc4backed Yes | 24c | 410.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 31c | 400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…7c8fbacked No | 78c | 384$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab63…feecbacked Yes | 20c | 375.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 64c | 350$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked Yes | 19c | 348.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed Yes | 22c | 338.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 18c | 334.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 330.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 19c | 328.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 79c | 320$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 25c | 318.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…8380backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 20c | 306.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 18c | 304.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 17c | 303.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…c50ebacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 16c | 284.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Yes | 18c | 272.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 269.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 76c | 268.16$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…9e4ebacked Yes | 13c | 267.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 35c | 260$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed No | 65c | 240$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 233.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked Yes | 25c | 229.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…69d0backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…14d2backed No | 74c | 225$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 18c | 222$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f920backed No | 67c | 195.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 16c | 190.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 170$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed No | 77c | 162.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 77c | 152$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…1dc8backed Yes | 20c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…18febacked Yes | 22c | 149.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 19c | 147.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…6abcbacked No | 74c | 147$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…7c5dbacked Yes | 18c | 143.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…4465backed No | 78c | 134.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed Yes | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 9c | 129$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.