Earnings · resolved market
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e3aa08ff437518658725bf3674b3e5106a554521d705181e750416c6f437e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 23c | 3,372$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.61 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes | 78c | 3,195$2,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…bd20backed No | 21c | 2,633$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 16c | 1,733$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.75 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed Yes | 77c | 1,162$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.25 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 72c | 1,138$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.69 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes | 76c | 870.37$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb500…0014backed No | 27c | 868$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7985…f134backed Yes | 73c | 868$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…4003backed No | 28c | 702.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 565.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…7f2dbacked Yes | 77c | 520.52$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed No | 22c | 493.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…2bc1backed No | 21c | 416.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 21c | 402.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…6bafbacked No | 27c | 364.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…d850backed No | 14c | 356.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed No | 30c | 346.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 307.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 77c | 258.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 21c | 256.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78b5…b505backed Yes | 76c | 250.48$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…7e4abacked No | 24c | 250.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf973…2593backed No | 18c | 250$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked No | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 78c | 168.38$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 26c | 167.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 26c | 167.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 144.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…49d4backed Yes | 74c | 134.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3964…66b2backed Yes | 75c | 134$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…60c5backed Yes | 78c | 133.68$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 22c | 118.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48f…4ae5backed No | 13c | 106.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Yes | 79c | 106$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…5fa8backed Yes | 75c | 102.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 95.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…bbd0backed No | 26c | 85.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 80.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 75c | 79.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…5319backed No | 15c | 79.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 16c | 73.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…4210backed Yes | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…aa02backed No | 24c | 62.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004d…8d91backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…325dbacked No | 25c | 56.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…6863backed Yes | 78c | 55.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…fceebacked No | 20c | 51.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f9…1d13backed Yes | 71c | 50.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…ea0cbacked Yes | 78c | 48.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 78c | 48.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 73c | 46.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…33b3backed Yes | 79c | 45.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 28c | 43.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb685…05edbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…d12cbacked Yes | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…bea8backed Yes | 71c | 29.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…7c18backed Yes | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…5525backed Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1083…52b2backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda36…4c02backed Yes | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…031dbacked Yes | 72c | 26.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…c785backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 65c | 25.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…5d97backed Yes | 73c | 24.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked Yes | 80c | 24.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e39…313fbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 77cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767b…d88abacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…68dfbacked Yes | 76c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.