MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8009368847e0a81c4d5a1a55d5e23c47c6d9ac8c98698b236cc575098d0e384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,216 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 4,116$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 2,218$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.21 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa51…a910backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 1,644$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.77 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 1,546$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.5 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…407ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 407.7$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 362.88$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 361$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.11 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 318.51$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.86 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 303$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.68 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 288.46$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 282.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…fd9dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 275.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 14c | 275.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 18c | 268.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 213.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 199.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 190$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 189.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.59 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 187.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 19c | 165.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 18c | 138.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 136$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 129.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 20c | 123.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 106$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd252…775bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 341 | 64.2%219 W · 122 L | +22.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 18c | 85.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 84.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 81.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 20c | 73.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 856 | 35.7%306 W · 550 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 71.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 51.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 49.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 42.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 37.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 35.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 34.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Cleveland Guardians | 78c | 28.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 26.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 23.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 171 | 59.1%101 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.