TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. 76ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
76ersof Bulls, 76ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,979,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,979,822 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,461 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bulls29c226,280$65,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,621.0687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed 76ers71c191,975$136,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,672.7511241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked 76ers70c100,000$70,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,999.8611955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bulls32c74,000$23,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,44048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed 76ers77c62,125$47,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,226.2270147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked 76ers71c55,832$39,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,191.199655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Bulls25c55,632$13,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,666.831,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Bulls29c52,700$15,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,519.995143.1%22 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Bulls29c48,883$14,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,304.521,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked 76ers69c48,506$33,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,897.0320744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 76ers70c47,170$32,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,294.264,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bulls7c37,832$2,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.61,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed 76ers71c35,935$25,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,439.219053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked Bulls31c29,000$8,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,989.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Bulls16c27,298$4,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,285.961,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Bulls29c26,439$7,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,667.2932540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Bulls0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5845…7903backed Bulls30c20,436$6,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,028.652015%3 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-59%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c36…7854backed 76ers71c20,000$14,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8002263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Bulls30c18,571$5,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,647.111543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 76ers78c17,214$13,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,789.212,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked 76ers68c16,186$10,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,213.51,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed 76ers69c15,000$10,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,650.041,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed 76ers68c14,931$10,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,722.6519957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls12c13,945$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.768,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked 76ers68c12,000$8,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8409159.3%54 W · 37 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls31c12,000$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,679.954,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed 76ers71c11,409$8,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,307.075250%26 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Bulls32c10,784$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,450.448939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed 76ers69c10,400$7,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,223.9927241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed 76ers69c10,000$6,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,134.1387750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers71c10,000$7,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e6…7ce6backed Bulls31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1001855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Bulls29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec6…f355backed 76ers69c10,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.983847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aee…fad4backed Bulls31c9,821$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003729.7%11 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x846f…6f65backed Bulls31c9,500$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,944.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Bulls30c9,190$2,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7572138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Bulls33c8,499$2,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,762.4216440.9%67 W · 97 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked 76ers69c8,085$5,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,506.351,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Bulls30c7,914$2,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,374.073644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Bulls31c7,779$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.431,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Bulls0c7,330$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.334573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bulls0c7,223$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.728820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b6…fbbbbacked 76ers71c7,042$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.253256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x805d…99cebacked 76ers69c6,801$4,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2d…6381backed Bulls31c6,800$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Bulls31c6,600$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.9865939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4453…dd3bbacked 76ers78c6,432$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.964573.3%33 W · 12 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Bulls31c6,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.9786641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Bulls31c6,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.9643438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bulls9c5,650$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.653,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Bulls33c5,640$1,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.8839349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee0b…e9f4backed 76ers71c5,400$3,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5661127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-54.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf209…15b9backed Bulls30c5,375$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6251435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked 76ers72c5,319$3,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.43,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked 76ers69c5,182$3,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.422,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Bulls39c5,000$1,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.5825947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed 76ers69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,55016346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc689…5250backed Bulls31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.983767.6%25 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Bulls5c5,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed Bulls34c5,000$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.951118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick41cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Bulls14c4,864$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.1725226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls31c4,788$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.964,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f5…5cfbbacked Bulls32c4,718$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50016421.3%35 W · 129 L-10.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bulls10c4,561$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.821,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce8…8cabbacked 76ers69c4,380$3,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bulls7c4,232$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.223,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 76ers73c4,070$2,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.095,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc53c…9525backed 76ers69c4,019$2,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.751353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed 76ers80c4,005$3,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.0519954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Bulls31c4,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24012045%54 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Bulls26c3,958$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.2327865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Bulls27c3,940$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.820537.1%76 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed 76ers69c3,882$2,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.422,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked 76ers71c3,800$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10217162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3135…26a0backed 76ers71c3,700$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0734360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc94a…cfcabacked Bulls31c3,629$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1251421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick40cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9541…3b71backed 76ers71c3,573$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.183644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19a8…e5ecbacked 76ers69c3,400$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…0f2bbacked 76ers71c3,333$2,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.576440.6%26 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…c450backed 76ers69c3,301$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5276…f984backed 76ers69c3,297$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8beb…17ccbacked 76ers69c3,286$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf0…3156backed 76ers76c3,248$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.5250338.4%193 W · 310 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5679…1a98backed 76ers69c3,232$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe4d…e62ebacked 76ers69c3,230$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aba…4744backed 76ers69c3,230$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe262…ac17backed 76ers69c3,217$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.391338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x76ab…506dbacked Bulls31c3,200$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9924551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4870…85f7backed 76ers69c3,200$2,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.994445.5%20 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Bulls32c3,115$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.8241652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Bulls21c3,074$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.193,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed 76ers71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87036954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Bulls32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96038143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf163…a06dbacked Bulls31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.991741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed 76ers71c2,817$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.922159.7%132 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42ef…1576backed 76ers71c2,748$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.897850%39 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed 76ers71c2,647$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.52,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf176…74d0backed Bulls31c2,625$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.