Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Big 12 conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280ce6a409f2dc05448fc426ee73089c599d2c45b119508551135d528a3d5f2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1307…9908backed Yes | 3c | 12,220$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 75c | 1,459$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.47 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 29c | 1,086$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.88 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 34c | 512.77$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.28 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes | 25c | 446.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 20c | 403.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x109f…1c5bbacked Yes | 35c | 343.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…0ce3backed Yes | 4c | 310$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…bb53backed Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…6ba4backed Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b2…0da6backed Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364b…b295backed Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…e90abacked Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a69…66d6backed Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…7ff4backed Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…18d7backed Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ade…18dfbacked Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b1…a783backed Yes | 36c | 277$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…1f16backed Yes | 19c | 250.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 30c | 211$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd74…8afebacked No | 65c | 198.35$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…877cbacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…916ebacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…5c48backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…6cc3backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1e…4a0ebacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…2de8backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8739…faf0backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…7b6ebacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…a25bbacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…a233backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc0…2dfbbacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e4…8723backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…308fbacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140c…74e4backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…31fcbacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61eb…c6aabacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…bbb3backed No | 65c | 144.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…5142backed No | 64c | 137$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f6…4832backed No | 64c | 137$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 26c | 134.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 98.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 66cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 14c | 76.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 23cpaid | +289.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 23c | 72.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 70.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 18c | 66.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed Yes | 32c | 58.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 20c | 51.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 49.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 47.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 27c | 45.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ca…7432backed Yes | 35c | 43.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 67c | 38.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Big 12 conference?this page
- Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference)?No won
- Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Big East conference?No won
- Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Big Ten conference?Yes won
- Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the SEC (Southeastern Conference)?No won
- Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Southern Conference (SoCon)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.