MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7392c7f8be4c5dc136c329d0c4ddaa719f765d1348286c53e3d9ad1deeefbcf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,311 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6027…4320backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 3,014$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.96 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed New York Mets | 53c | 3,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.93 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 1,625$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.01 | 624 | 47.6%297 W · 327 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 1,474$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.9 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed New York Mets | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed New York Mets | 52c | 748.02$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.25 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 67c | 561.81$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed New York Mets | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked New York Mets | 50c | 397.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 362.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New York Mets | 50c | 343.76$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 314.4$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked New York Mets | 60c | 301$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed New York Mets | 27c | 271.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.08 | 856 | 35.7%306 W · 550 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked New York Mets | 49c | 200.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 192.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 174.89$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed New York Mets | 51c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed New York Mets | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 121.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked New York Mets | 51c | 116.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 115.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked New York Mets | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked New York Mets | 28c | 98.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed New York Mets | 44c | 61.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed New York Mets | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed New York Mets | 63c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 52.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed New York Mets | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 44c | 49.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 48.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed New York Mets | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.