TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Clippers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Kings, Clippers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,994,897
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,576,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,994,897 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,049 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Clippers31c333,658$102,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,339.8166248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Kings11c302,547$33,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269,037.3527424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Kings42c108,548$45,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,817.4820744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Kings11c84,500$9,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,861.1729245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings14c81,388$11,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,787.554,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2133…816ebacked Clippers55c80,941$44,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,858.391662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kings52c76,134$39,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,566.971,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Clippers53c75,000$39,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,749.9544352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Kings10c69,074$7,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,957.071,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Kings10c66,818$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,818.181,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed Kings48c64,252$30,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,437.645567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0de…c0b9backed Clippers0c51,320$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Kings34c50,019$16,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,039.8734456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Kings10c50,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,999.8296447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Kings14c47,099$6,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,331.841,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…b386backed Clippers30c46,591$14,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,021.563946.2%18 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+24.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Clippers32c43,967$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00017247.7%82 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Clippers49c43,406$21,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,084.914,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Kings11c42,482$4,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,808.828748.3%42 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Kings42c40,065$16,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,240.96546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Kings11c40,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,60014052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Clippers53c39,808$20,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,943.7923147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Clippers63c38,946$24,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,50036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Kings10c38,200$3,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,379.8616039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Clippers30c36,920$11,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,083.0659646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Kings54c33,799$18,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,596.792,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings23c32,101$7,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,606.319,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Kings37c31,960$11,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,173.11,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Kings11c30,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,7001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Kings10c29,000$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,029.9161835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Kings11c28,077$3,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,058.332,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Kings46c27,920$12,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,951.2226353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcae4…e479backed Kings40c26,443$10,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,793.673151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Kings11c25,914$2,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,995.594,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings46c22,700$10,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,335.878,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Kings11c22,500$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,0251,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Kings10c22,222$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,999.815952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Clippers78c21,152$16,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,50052760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Clippers54c20,363$10,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,99616846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Kings12c20,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,6009018.9%17 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Kings11c19,676$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,549.483,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Kings74c19,238$14,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,049.9976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…734dbacked Clippers16c19,115$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kings37c18,304$6,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,502.633,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x323b…6ed9backed Clippers54c18,118$9,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,751.972958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Kings67c17,859$11,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,886.0613642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Clippers46c16,237$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50020352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Kings10c15,005$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,454.391,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Kings46c15,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,10045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Clippers18c14,589$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.625,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Kings21c13,999$2,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,119.639330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Kings50c13,437$6,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,684.1610743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Kings28c13,150$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,490.2110530.5%32 W · 73 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab65…4a03backed Kings11c12,809$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,400.014647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aee…fad4backed Clippers43c12,802$5,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,545.193729.7%11 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Kings70c12,291$8,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,728.296147.5%29 W · 32 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Kings11c12,264$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,914.9624045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76ab…506dbacked Kings13c12,100$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5274551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked Kings13c11,900$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,3531838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Clippers4c11,778$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2b…f091backed Clippers17c11,765$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Kings34c11,590$3,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,626.9246940.3%189 W · 280 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Clippers46c11,372$5,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,181.429352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Kings10c11,233$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,060.462,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Kings29c11,130$3,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,941.5961939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Kings12c11,104$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,721.861,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Kings10c10,870$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,78320355.2%112 W · 91 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Kings10c10,500$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,419.9647028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b0d…90c0backed Kings10c10,450$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,4058834.1%30 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc92d…a35ebacked Clippers0c10,242$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.299018.9%17 W · 73 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Clippers71c10,140$7,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,236.6734851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kings35c10,116$3,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,555.865,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Kings68c10,037$6,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,167.429547.5%140 W · 155 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Kings11c10,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,90077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Kings14c10,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,599.9738434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Clippers43c9,709$4,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,204.552,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Kings34c9,233$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,065.4518440.8%75 W · 109 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Kings11c8,891$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,912.991,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Kings13c8,888$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,732.5641832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kings33c8,814$2,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,899.691,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Kings30c8,718$2,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,113.4738540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Kings46c8,659$3,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,682.062,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Clippers53c8,647$4,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,583.0817646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Kings60c8,446$5,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,341.0289444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d4…2a42backed Kings12c8,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,333.339851%50 W · 48 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d36…90a4backed Clippers31c8,327$2,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Kings22c8,147$1,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,389.9730840.9%126 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Clippers53c8,146$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3004535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Clippers22c8,000$1,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.4537539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Kings11c7,897$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,028.9228643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d1…553ebacked Kings13c7,800$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,7863438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab30…88dbbacked Clippers1c7,673$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.582744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Clippers8c7,281$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.951,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Clippers55c7,273$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00035650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Kings37c7,162$2,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,498.8485344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Clippers70c7,149$4,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,984.9914244.4%63 W · 79 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kings55c7,109$3,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,207.171,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a4d…ce2cbacked Kings68c7,042$4,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.718100%8 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+75%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Kings10c6,700$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0308063.8%51 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Clippers3c6,469$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17526824.6%66 W · 202 L-14.9wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.