MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool D: Dominican Rep. vs. Nicaragua
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf39f0250680df7b6bc36fa9c23935f9f5ffa1dec9947feade4261d31ffe2dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dominican Rep.of Dominican Rep., Nicaragua
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,375 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Nicaragua | 8c | 12,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Nicaragua | 2c | 8,290$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.34 | 224 | 2.7%6 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nicaragua | 0c | 7,824$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Nicaragua | 7c | 7,317$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.38 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nicaragua | 7c | 5,080$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.57 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Nicaragua | 10c | 3,467$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.04 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nicaragua | 10c | 2,584$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Nicaragua | 16c | 2,238$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.22 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nicaragua | 10c | 1,990$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.13 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Nicaragua | 7c | 1,364$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e6…2e0bbacked Nicaragua | 9c | 1,363$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nicaragua | 12c | 1,129$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Nicaragua | 6c | 1,110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nicaragua | 8c | 1,021$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Nicaragua | 7c | 853.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Nicaragua | 8c | 787.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Nicaragua | 7c | 708$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Nicaragua | 7c | 537.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…3415backed Nicaragua | 8c | 500.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Nicaragua | 9c | 483.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nicaragua | 6c | 459$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nicaragua | 7c | 431.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…f69fbacked Nicaragua | 16c | 427.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Nicaragua | 10c | 405.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Nicaragua | 8c | 385$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Nicaragua | 8c | 381.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Nicaragua | 6c | 364.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Nicaragua | 9c | 342$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed Nicaragua | 8c | 330$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nicaragua | 10c | 228.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Nicaragua | 15c | 217.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd3…b751backed Nicaragua | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed Nicaragua | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Nicaragua | 10c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Nicaragua | 14c | 189$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Nicaragua | 9c | 188.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nicaragua | 9c | 160.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Nicaragua | 11c | 148.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed Nicaragua | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Nicaragua | 20c | 143.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 280 | 45.7%128 W · 152 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…7f59backed Nicaragua | 8c | 131.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…e0c5backed Nicaragua | 13c | 119.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nicaragua | 14c | 109.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Nicaragua | 10c | 105.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nicaragua | 15c | 94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…5f5abacked Nicaragua | 15c | 74.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.