Earnings · resolved market
Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11d1a2071e422864eca23cd5284748ac309037fba7d3f4cdf7a1d1e6970b37d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 3c | 3,100$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +246.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 61c | 609.78$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.25 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…8dacbacked No | 33c | 302$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f92…39d0backed No | 33c | 302$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…5d7fbacked No | 33c | 302$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…6a41backed No | 33c | 302$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…8f67backed No | 33c | 290$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9130…6caebacked No | 33c | 290$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 37c | 256.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.26 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…4003backed Yes | 64c | 235.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 201.58$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…d850backed No | 39c | 194.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…6266backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…44a5backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…db58backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…ae56backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606b…b60bbacked Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…48b6backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6842…9a3dbacked Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a72…cfe6backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…1aa7backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…2ed5backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…c86dbacked Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…1dbcbacked Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…3cb4backed Yes | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 69c | 139.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…bdaabacked No | 37c | 134.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 39c | 130$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 122$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 36c | 103.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…6a2abacked No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed No | 41c | 72.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 70c | 64.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 61.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed No | 39c | 58.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 60c | 55.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 62c | 54.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…60c5backed Yes | 64c | 52.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…ab48backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…325dbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 45.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 27c | 45.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 34c | 44.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 43.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes | 70c | 43.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed No | 35c | 37.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…6bc6backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…4210backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…1f9fbacked Yes | 66c | 33.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 40c | 31.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767b…d88abacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…6863backed Yes | 65c | 23.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…ea0cbacked Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 65c | 17.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.