TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf6de…6a2a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+62.3%+$77.8
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+203%+$67
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$12.17
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$178.63
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$76
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.45
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$42.09
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$124
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+77%+$261
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$128
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+357.4%+$197.9
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.86
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$57.6
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$11.05
All 12 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.78
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Crude Oil all time high by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$59.7
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$147.48
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$86.93
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+60%+$146.28
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$17.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$18.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$51.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+94.7%+$48.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$44.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.