Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd02bd168fdc5a855c27fa8f5e7abf97c199cbe13bd2c63620fdde22a2707649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,642 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 37c | 3,185$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.09 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 21c | 1,791$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.54 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 23c | 1,389$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.11 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x943c…1d17backed No | 69c | 1,244$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 50c | 911.2$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.32 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 889.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f6…a4f9backed Yes | 11c | 816.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +218.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 61c | 750.13$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.21 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 34c | 711.27$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.03 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 70c | 591.51$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.33 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…7ddabacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 23c | 484.49$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…7756backed No | 48c | 472.26$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…e2b0backed Yes | 68c | 441.35$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 61c | 415.92$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…069fbacked Yes | 33c | 402.11$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 54c | 348.21$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 327.4$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 32c | 289.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 38c | 287.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 285.44$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 35c | 250$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…a69dbacked Yes | 48c | 249.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96eb…7ca6backed Yes | 19c | 246.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 52c | 224.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…745ebacked No | 46c | 217.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 18c | 213.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 62c | 204.9$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 20c | 187.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 79c | 187$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 46c | 173.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 59c | 170$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…9063backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 32c | 153$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 140.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…3920backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 119.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67c…30d0backed No | 52c | 95.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 51c | 94.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 34c | 87.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 29c | 87.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 14c | 76.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 19cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 68.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 49c | 67.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 41c | 63.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…6a2abacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…15f7backed Yes | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 49.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 48.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 28c | 43.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 41c | 42.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50d5…18d8backed No | 67c | 41.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 55c | 40.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…411abacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…40c6backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 33c | 39.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…92a2backed No | 53c | 28.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…9120backed No | 77c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…06bcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…693bbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…3576backed Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 71cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026?this page
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.