TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,923 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c8d…309abacked Yes16c628.01$100 inLost-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed Yes11c586$64 inLost-$64.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes24c307.25$73 inLost-$72.563925.6%10 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No72c274.98$198 inWon+$77.094045%18 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2806…05ddbacked Yes21c178.12$37 inLost-$36.581323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-67.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d50…1f5dbacked No75c160$120 inWon+$40.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5acd…08fabacked No80c120.76$96 inWon+$24.521172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes13c109$14 inLost-$14.011,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xae12…c8f9backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-33.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes25c80$20 inLost-$209745.4%44 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ae…3255backed No64c22.5$15 inWon+$81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No71c20.1$14 inWon+$5.85048%24 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.