Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c59991cf67c08182cb2b0e06a2c47645a7c1fd0f86e062678307fdf082bfb21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,214$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed Yes | 14c | 953$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 919.47$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.85 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 14c | 912$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +266.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 843$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 80c | 764$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 20c | 756$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 70c | 727$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 20c | 707$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 6c | 703.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 80c | 699$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…309abacked Yes | 15c | 672.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 30c | 423$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 30c | 416$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +266.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…1f5dbacked No | 70c | 396.38$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…613abacked Yes | 28c | 298.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 178.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6de4…682bbacked No | 47c | 113.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 21c | 112.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 70c | 112$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…3dfabacked Yes | 53c | 95.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 27c | 69.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 18c | 67.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…c8f9backed Yes | 29c | 51.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 65c | 36.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f07…d756backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 27, 2026?this page
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.