Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27c0a5bc2c2d314ddb5c759d2303234d35513279f2972de3f6a201133b59db31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 5c | 3,399$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 48c | 1,953$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 16c | 1,762$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.79 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 33c | 1,083$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.42 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 9c | 854.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed Yes | 13c | 784$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +364%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 11c | 605$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 10c | 602.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 11c | 582$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +266.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed Yes | 13c | 540$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 11c | 421$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +441.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed No | 3c | 420$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed Yes | 11c | 415$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 11c | 405$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 15c | 290.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.96 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 40c | 199.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 133.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 23c | 117.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 32c | 79.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 68.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…cb00backed No | 53c | 52.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…f0afbacked No | 35c | 37.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…1f5dbacked No | 70c | 37.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 30, 2026?this page
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.