Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 20, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c5fc449d5752e3847529d136a01a800ce6b8deb49ab390484afc1170b823b41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,869 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,091$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,025$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 77c | 1,008$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked No | 77c | 987$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 23c | 970$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 17c | 682.52$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…34eabacked Yes | 4c | 537.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 15c | 236.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 170.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 129.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed No | 65c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 18c | 59.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…15f7backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 20, 2026?this page
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.