Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70f638a60af6d9603db8255be5067cdde4d7707ab1d6406e83a5f4b9f0023e5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61b9…8913backed Yes | 0c | 35,125$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 0c | 32,971$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 7c | 6,402$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 5,477$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 77c | 5,028$3,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.19 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 13c | 3,118$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 0c | 2,900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 20c | 2,024$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,772$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 20c | 1,497$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.59 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…6380backed Yes | 19c | 1,312$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 20c | 1,183$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.07 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed Yes | 26c | 1,095$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 10c | 1,051$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 4c | 945.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked Yes | 2c | 909.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 17c | 900$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 11c | 764.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…7ddabacked Yes | 2c | 759.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 70c | 741.48$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.12 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 27c | 705.1$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 38c | 686.75$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…a091backed Yes | 7c | 572.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…fd85backed Yes | 3c | 514.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked No | 72c | 486$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…4dd9backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…c4c4backed Yes | 7c | 347.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 45c | 265.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 5c | 253$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 25c | 235.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 64c | 211.02$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.94 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 12c | 163$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 79c | 154.23$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…1196backed Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…e2dabacked Yes | 23c | 127.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed No | 56c | 110.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…b283backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…fa95backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 89.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 51c | 86.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…f91dbacked Yes | 25c | 82.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 71c | 81.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…e249backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 75c | 37.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…40e0backed No | 73c | 34.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 68c | 26.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…70c6backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…2c75backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 18, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 25, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.