TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,256 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6db2…a781backed Yes30c2,234$676 inLost-$675.522748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes11c2,173$247 inLost-$246.655048%24 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…7ddabacked Yes3c1,181$40 inLost-$39.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes10c782.3$76 inLost-$75.788339.8%33 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked No74c638$472 inWon+$165.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes4c580.87$21 inLost-$20.663925.6%10 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes4c492.02$19 inLost-$18.64520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5039…51ccbacked Yes8c364$29 inLost-$29.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes10c218.94$21 inLost-$21.191915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-65.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce55…c888backed Yes26c218$57 inLost-$56.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2756…42efbacked Yes26c213$55 inLost-$55.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes11c207.68$22 inLost-$22.092030%6 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes26c207$54 inLost-$53.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No44c153.77$68 inWon+$86.111776.5%13 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.36per pick41cpaid+94.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes11c129$15 inLost-$14.751,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x81d1…4e30backed Yes24c110$26 inLost-$263036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed No57c108$62 inWon+$46.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+63.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe593…8692backed No79c78.57$62 inWon+$16.51675%12 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No64c60$39 inWon+$21.44168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No66c45.74$30 inWon+$15.554973.5%36 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No62c25$15 inWon+$9.5712829.7%38 W · 90 L-15.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-55.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.