TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Crude Oil all time high by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$792,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$762,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $792,733 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25db…28debacked Yes6c94,777$6,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,112.639317.2%16 W · 77 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8e…9293backed Yes2c30,831$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e810backed Yes5c13,219$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes4c13,180$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.2130%0 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes12c12,526$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.171618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes5c12,187$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.3932023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8aa…e3e9backed Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…2c93backed Yes0c9,954$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c7,864$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.691306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes14c7,280$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.022817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab57…0319backed Yes13c6,793$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes13c6,500$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+73.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b70…ed51backed Yes12c6,422$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c6,373$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8612126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa398…0a9cbacked Yes2c6,368$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b62…7418backed Yes2c6,238$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84b…7212backed Yes12c5,880$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes15c5,507$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.51118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes3c5,343$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.553122.6%7 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c5,331$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.122324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a2…bd51backed Yes4c5,083$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,847$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.21,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c4,807$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.41912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes3c4,349$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d6…dd72backed Yes12c4,167$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9715…4577backed Yes3c3,946$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.91185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-79.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14a7…f75abacked Yes18c3,565$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.492147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09f0…36f9backed Yes4c3,442$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…763bbacked Yes1c3,151$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe698…e111backed Yes3c3,065$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6936…0211backed Yes2c2,996$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes2c2,780$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.58330%0 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5dde…2217backed Yes11c2,754$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+325.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a32…2fcdbacked Yes13c2,689$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes2c2,611$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-42.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x872e…e58fbacked Yes19c2,532$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.52728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x611b…9841backed Yes20c2,520$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a58…dd44backed Yes2c2,503$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3140…b176backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes18c2,399$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.022250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64a3…3b6fbacked Yes14c2,218$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.97520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9386…b2b7backed Yes2c2,138$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.59110%0 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3994…ff63backed Yes1c2,055$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes10c2,000$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.561723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b4…a85abacked Yes4c1,978$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-71.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed73…4465backed Yes5c1,800$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.44047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c1,700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed Yes12c1,688$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c1,664$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.53692.9%2 W · 67 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c37…9ebfbacked Yes4c1,600$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d8…8518backed Yes2c1,535$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,527$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf8…3055backed Yes14c1,511$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc1…84edbacked Yes5c1,501$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes11c1,500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1653417.6%6 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af6…0dc9backed Yes13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebee…e34cbacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe45d…a18bbacked Yes14c1,395$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…740ebacked Yes8c1,393$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes12c1,391$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0821015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc6b…e7bbbacked Yes11c1,364$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c1,344$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.24812.5%2 W · 79 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b31…d439backed Yes3c1,343$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.37714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-76.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes4c1,339$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bc…1b57backed Yes12c1,326$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.86450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3365…626cbacked Yes2c1,316$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c1,309$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2130718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d42…bd12backed Yes3c1,298$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.99966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c1,284$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.35664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135e…75cfbacked Yes2c1,276$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c1,266$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53290%0 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef7…5a08backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502010%2 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-86.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7063…9b11backed Yes4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes3c1,200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x985c…61aebacked Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes5c1,093$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc83b…c8a2backed Yes19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf18…d030backed Yes2c1,052$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c2b…6df5backed Yes4c1,023$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7a…ef1dbacked Yes11c1,021$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19db…51fbbacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-74.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c55…25c3backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes16c999.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd3b…8f9abacked Yes2c999.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c999.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15738.2%6 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c998.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.982221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c993$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8215446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e7b…9cd5backed Yes15c916.31$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab0…463abacked Yes11c909.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes11c900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993030%9 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-36.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ee…ce87backed Yes1c882.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ea…7f8dbacked Yes3c862.75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e9a…1acdbacked Yes3c834.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfa…2b67backed Yes1c834.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3f…64a2backed Yes2c808.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6de…6a2abacked Yes3c800$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcd5…6be7backed Yes12c727.27$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.