Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac66cf30b4c25ff3a2de811f5d2f9ffeabe663f72e8b5dd46c797638903947e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 20c | 3,461$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.94 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 73c | 2,946$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.66 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…f6b3backed Yes | 18c | 2,835$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Yes | 11c | 2,490$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,490$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 79c | 2,300$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 24c | 2,265$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,127$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa94c…3cd9backed Yes | 31c | 550$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 400$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 399.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…fc9bbacked No | 74c | 350$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 78c | 317.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…c097backed Yes | 7c | 315$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…34b8backed No | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…27bebacked No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 19c | 238.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb523…aa1ebacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 195.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 22c | 191.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 154.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 78c | 148.7$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…2b20backed Yes | 10c | 148.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked No | 79c | 148$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 14c | 139.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 11c | 130.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 68c | 118.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…6a2abacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked No | 73c | 101.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…508fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes | 16c | 70.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 27c | 69.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 20c | 63.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 19c | 59.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 50.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…8fa5backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 79cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…e249backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 76c | 41.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked Yes | 30c | 36.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…b5d1backed No | 67c | 24.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?this page
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?No won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?No won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.