Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc4a5cf9c00451a656223054767c60c2011147970cd40b43379db8428aa81d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 6c | 1,600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 715.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…ec21backed Yes | 72c | 669.56$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 38c | 345.01$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed No | 26c | 200.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…6075backed Yes | 60c | 153.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 16c | 149.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 78c | 132.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 17c | 115.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +313.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 46c | 109.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 52c | 93.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 24c | 62.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 69c | 52.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 44c | 34.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?this page
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?No won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?No won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.