Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6dbcfa48ba6d9c4a48c62311d2b438d2d160bd6db92d12a67aba685c0a6e6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74f5…b1c6backed No | 65c | 687$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 19c | 610.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 18c | 565.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 20c | 540.17$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 489.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 16c | 390.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 19c | 347.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 20c | 326.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…2298backed No | 80c | 247.5$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…118abacked Yes | 21c | 227.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +292%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 210$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97f…3307backed Yes | 58c | 158$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 53c | 142$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 137.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 19c | 125.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f93…989abacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 18c | 98.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 16c | 89.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 88.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 13c | 87.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 24c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…94f7backed Yes | 21c | 74.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 43c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 76c | 54.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a02…8b73backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…4252backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 58c | 36.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed No | 75c | 29.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…13d7backed No | 80c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x756c…651bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?this page
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?No won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?Yes won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?No won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.