Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8879d2f55f3a15028660eba65785832c1dfc04f99e8e495010933688ccb9c6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 58c | 3,689$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.57 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…56c9backed No | 5c | 2,103$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 6c | 1,554$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 1,199$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.55 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 50c | 1,064$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.9 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 863$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 805.96$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.16 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 37c | 748.01$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.94 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 50c | 660.75$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.22 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…6075backed Yes | 67c | 388.42$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 31c | 338$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e6…864ebacked Yes | 54c | 330.23$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 328$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 34c | 258.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 31c | 222$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 54c | 209.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…ec21backed Yes | 72c | 208.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…398bbacked Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 25c | 199.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 50c | 199.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 52c | 186.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 32c | 162.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed No | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 39c | 149.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 54c | 144$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 55c | 137$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 130$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 42c | 129.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 38c | 123.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 115.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 73c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 44c | 107.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed Yes | 40c | 98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…c14dbacked No | 44c | 93.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0757…58b3backed No | 36c | 84.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 69c | 73.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 44c | 72.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd276…b615backed Yes | 41c | 66.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 43c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 52.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 45.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 71c | 44.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed2…6630backed Yes | 74c | 42.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked No | 75c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9689backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 32c | 37.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda6a…02b7backed No | 44c | 37.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b7…da10backed Yes | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…d8d0backed No | 31c | 34.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 54c | 32.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 78c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 57c | 23.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cba…38ffbacked Yes | 53c | 19.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…fa2abacked Yes | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?this page
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?No won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?No won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?No won
- Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.