Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a0ccebe4d41cef33e463bbc8a6510c20d2c4ad5fe57019cfad8ec9bcbf6de26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 4,578$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 63c | 2,729$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.11 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 2,033$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.87 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 39c | 1,975$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…1c56backed Yes | 34c | 1,875$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 30c | 1,818$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…6447backed No | 60c | 1,733$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 22c | 1,508$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 67c | 1,220$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.53 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 70c | 1,080$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed No | 70c | 1,067$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 943.16$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked Yes | 40c | 822$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 67c | 815.71$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.67 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 60c | 813$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed No | 60c | 780$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 40c | 771$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 30c | 751$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…2f84backed No | 70c | 751$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 70c | 742$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd70e…0ac1backed Yes | 30c | 737$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 70c | 736$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 30c | 720$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 40c | 693$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes | 30c | 690$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 70c | 683$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 40c | 669$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked Yes | 40c | 660$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 64c | 640.48$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 71c | 594.88$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 33c | 588.69$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.57 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 40c | 552$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5a2bbacked Yes | 42c | 503.89$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 367.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…4578backed Yes | 30c | 343$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 41c | 290$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 60c | 289$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 278.88$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.07 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc154…04b2backed No | 62c | 230.06$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…4f7ebacked No | 79c | 211$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa50d…38a4backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…7333backed Yes | 34c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 197.82$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 42c | 194.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 48c | 158.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 33c | 157$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 67c | 157$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 153.87$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68b0…bd1fbacked Yes | 33c | 152$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 63c | 140.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 59c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…2ca0backed No | 78c | 132$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 129.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 23c | 129$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 39c | 127.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b1…b066backed Yes | 45c | 113.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…9764backed No | 59c | 109.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 103.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 60c | 102.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…4e23backed No | 56c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…b3debacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…89c8backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…7687backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 60c | 91.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed No | 79c | 89.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 62c | 78.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 46c | 77.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 75.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…be79backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…d290backed No | 62c | 61.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 36c | 57.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…9930backed No | 63c | 54.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…b321backed No | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +199.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 59c | 52.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…6a2abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89a…70d3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…18e2backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…b9f6backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 54c | 43.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 40c | 40.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…659abacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d67…e602backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…6e2ebacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.