Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6ebc65df5b84f0c1256d99cbf17124a202bf80d12f9abad906ac2c74ee95dfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 1c | 4,800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 13c | 2,769$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.88 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed Yes | 41c | 2,297$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ba…40d9backed Yes | 79c | 1,524$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167b…2a29backed No | 38c | 1,300$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 31c | 1,050$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 11c | 1,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 3c | 963.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed No | 12c | 850$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked No | 59c | 846$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 28c | 829.03$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.09 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 59c | 822$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.98 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…831dbacked No | 9c | 750$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 713$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 59c | 629$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 66c | 390.33$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked Yes | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 199$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 148.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…11f9backed No | 37c | 143.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 24c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c57…278ebacked Yes | 64c | 41.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 60c | 38.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 65c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 70c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1775 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1850 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.